Define payout before calculating a win rate
A quoted payout may mean net profit or a total return that includes the original stake. These lead to different calculations. The following is a mathematical example, not a quote from any platform or a recommendation to trade.
Suppose a losing contract loses one unit and a winning contract earns 0.80 units of net profit. If the win probability is p, expected net return per unit is p × 0.80 − (1 − p). The break-even probability before costs is 1 / 1.80, approximately 55.56%. A 50% hit rate would have negative expected return under these assumptions.
Add costs and explain the sample
If an additional fixed cost c is paid on every attempt and net win profit is r, the simplified break-even probability is (1 + c) / (1 + r). Actual fees can depend on execution or outcome, so this shortcut is valid only for the stated cost model. Ties, refunds and early exits require separate accounting.
A performance report should state wins, losses, unresolved outcomes, the sample period and the payout convention. A sample containing only settled trades can differ from the full set of issued forecasts. Never silently treat unresolved records as losses or wins.
Apply the distinction to AI outputs
JEV confidence is not a measured contract win probability, so inserting it into an expected-return formula is not justified. The public evaluation page describes the missing calibration evidence. The TradingView review reports directional outcomes, not a fee-adjusted profit statement.
For any platform, including Robinhood or Binance, use the particular product’s current contract specification rather than copying a payout percentage from an unrelated example.