Event contracts in one sentence
An event contract is a contract on whether a specific event happens. For BTC, the most common question is:
At expiry, will the BTC price be above or below the opening price (or a stated strike)?
You pick “up” or “down”. At expiry the platform checks its settlement price: if you were right you receive the published payout; if you were wrong you usually lose your stake. There are only two outcomes, which is why these are often called binary-outcome contracts.
What makes up an event contract
Rules vary by platform, but you will usually see the following — read each one before you trade:
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Underlying | e.g. BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT |
| Direction | Up (expiry price above open) or down (below open) |
| Expiry | e.g. 10 min, 30 min, 1 hour, 1 day — set by the platform |
| Settlement price | The platform’s price source and sampling rule |
| Payout | What you earn when right; when wrong you typically lose the stake |
| Tie rule | What happens if the expiry price equals the open |
How they differ from spot and perpetuals
- Spot: you own the asset and your P&L moves continuously with price.
- Perpetual futures: leveraged, continuous P&L with liquidation risk and funding rates.
- Event contracts: only the direction at the moment of expiry matters. Outcomes are fixed up front (a set payout or the loss of your stake). There is no liquidation — but a wrong call costs the whole stake, not part of it.
So an event contract really asks: over this window, which direction has stronger evidence? That is exactly what the Coinpred JEV Model Forecast helps you organize.
A candle interval is not an expiry
This is the most common mix-up. In Coinpred you can choose candle intervals such as 1m, 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h and 1d. The interval is the resolution you use to read the market — it is not the contract’s expiry.
A common approach is to read structure on an interval close to (or a bit longer than) the expiry, then use a shorter interval for timing. For a 1-hour contract you might focus on 15m and 1h. That is a way of looking at the market, not a guarantee.
Signals worth watching
- Trend: price versus EMA20 / EMA50 / SMA200, with ADX for trend strength.
- Momentum: RSI, MACD, Stochastic, CCI and Williams %R.
- Volatility: ATR and Bollinger Band width — the more volatile, the harder short-term direction is.
- Order flow: order book imbalance, whether recent trades are buyer- or seller-initiated, and whether OBV confirms price.
Individual signals often disagree, which is why they need to be read together. For how the model combines them, see The JEV model explained.
Risks to understand first
- You can lose the entire stake on each wrong call.
- The payout sets your break-even: below a 100% payout you need better than 50% accuracy over time just to break even, before fees.
- Short expiries are noisy: the shorter the window, the more random movement dominates.
- Rules differ by platform: settlement source, tie handling and trading hours vary.
- Compliance: make sure these products are allowed where you live. Coinpred is not available to users in mainland China.
Using Coinpred as a second opinion
Coinpred structures live BTC and ETH candles, the order book, recent trades and 12 technical indicators for the JEV model, which returns one of five directions (strong bullish / bullish / neutral / bearish / strong bearish), a confidence value and supporting evidence. It is technical context, not a promise about any individual contract.
- New here? Read the step-by-step tutorial
- Want to read confidence correctly? See The JEV model explained
- Looking back at the market? Visit the TradingView signal win-rate review
Frequently asked questions
What is an event contract?
An event contract settles on a defined outcome; a BTC up or down contract typically compares its expiry price with a specified reference.
Is candle interval the same as contract expiry?
No. Candle interval describes market-data sampling; expiry and settlement are specified by the particular contract.